Free calculator

Traffic-drop test for content sites

The FirstPass Memo traffic-drop test is a free tool that shows a content site's profit and payback after a fall in search traffic of the size you choose, and the fall that would take profit to zero. Most content and affiliate sites earn the bulk of their revenue from Google search, and one update can cut it.

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How it works

Revenue lost = revenue × organic share × size of the drop
Profit after = profit − revenue lost
Break-even drop = profit ÷ (revenue × organic share)

The test keeps costs the same after the drop. That is the cautious case for a site that pays writers or editors every month; if most costs scale with revenue, the real effect is smaller. Listings often give the traffic split rather than the revenue split. If organic search brings 80% of visits, its share of revenue may be higher or lower, so ask.

Google announced nine core updates and eight spam updates between March 2024 and the end of September 2026, according to its Search Status Dashboard (read 7 October 2026). The content-site guide covers how to read a site's traffic history across them.

Worked example

A composite listing, not a real one: a content site asking $80,000 on $4,000 of monthly revenue and $3,000 of profit, with 80% of revenue from organic search. A 30% fall in search revenue costs $960 a month, leaving $2,040 of profit. Payback moves from 26.7 to 39.2 months. A drop of 46.9% would double payback, and a drop of 93.8% would take profit to zero.

Questions to send the seller

How did traffic move through each Google core update in the last 18 months?
Can you share 16 months of Search Console clicks and impressions, including any drops around Google updates?
What share of traffic and revenue comes from the top 10 pages?

Frequently asked questions

What size of drop should I test?

Start with 30% and then try the largest month-on-month fall in the site's own history. Search Console data for the last 16 months shows how the site moved around each update, which is a better guide than any general figure.

Does a high break-even drop mean the site is safe?

No. It means the site keeps a profit through larger falls, which helps. It says nothing about whether a fall will happen. Sites with thin content, bought links or heavy reliance on a few pages can lose most of their traffic in one update.

Should I include Pinterest or Discover traffic?

Count them separately if you can. They can move as sharply as search, and Google Discover traffic follows Google's systems too. Run the test once for search and once for the next-largest source.

Get the content site (display ads) seller checklist

Join the FirstPass Memo waitlist and the next page gives you the content site (display ads) seller question checklist (web page and PDF) straight away, along with the other free files: seller question checklists for eleven business types, the 72-hour vetting plan and a deal-tracker spreadsheet. Nothing is emailed; you download them on the page.

We will write when paid memos open, and occasionally before. Unsubscribe any time by replying "stop" to hello@firstpassmemo.com. Looking at a live listing priced $10k–150k? Apply for a free beta memo instead; its confirmation page has the same downloads.

This calculator does arithmetic on the figures you enter. It is not investment, legal, tax or valuation advice, and it does not check whether a seller's figures are true.